Category: Health

Each year, the Scowcroft Institute the Bush School hosts a summit on pandemics, which brings together experts who discuss the biggest challenges to successful responses to pandemics.

And each year, they prepare a white paper summarizing and extending the discussions at the summit.  This year, they marked the release of the White Paper with a FB Live event featuring Dr. Oyewale Tomoroi (Senior Fellow at Scowcroft Institute and Professor of Virology in Nigeria); Dr. Gerald Parker (Director for the Pandemic and Biosecurity Policy Programs at the Scowcroft Institute and administrator in many government divisions, including the Department of Homeland Security and Health and Human Services), Andrew Natsios (Executive Professor at the Scowcroft Institute; and manager of reconstruction programs in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Sudan); and moderated by Christi Blackburn (Deputy Director of the Scowcroft Institute’s Pandemic and Biosecurity Policy Program).

After introducing the guests, Dr. Blackburn…

…posed a number of questions to the panelists.  Dr. Tomori led off, noting the importance of responding to pandemics with speed and quality information and resources, and that this is especially true in remote areas, where resources may be scarce.

Dr. Parker then tackled the thorny problem of vaccinations.  He emphasized the importance of having development and dissemination plans.  While there has been much discussion of a vaccination for COVID, vaccinations are not typically easy to develop, nor are they often developed quickly (although not discussed here, I have read that the shortest time in history for the development of a vaccine is four years).

The keys are: (1) developing sufficient supplies, suppliers, and training to ground-level forces, and (2) distribution, which is the most difficult (“the final mile is the hardest”).  In the latter phase, Parker emphasized that vaccines are distributed all at once.  Vaccines have to be developed, and the supplies take time to get to everyone, so who gets the vaccine first?  Parker suggests, of course, health care workers, but a whole prioritization list needs to be developed for the entire rollout.  Also key is a plan by developed countries to get the vaccine to less wealthy countries, something that is both logistically difficult and sometimes politically fraught.

Professor Natsios elaborated on this with some interesting facts. First, he noted that the Russians were active on social media, using bots to spread messages both pro and con for vaccinations.  They know that, in a democracy, if you can confuse people to what the truth is, you can thrown democratic processes into confusion.  Further, polls show that approximately 30-50 percent of Americans indicate they are hesitant to avail themselves of a COVID vaccination.

The solution, according to Natsios, is to work with local leaders–religious, community, medical, even sports–and do publicity campaigns for vaccinations.

Dr. Blackburn switched topics, going to how to develop effective early warning systems in pandemics.  Natsios, who had extensive experience with detecting and responding to famines from his government days, also fielded this topic.

Noting that satellite photos could determine crop health and allow advance warnings for famines, Natsios pointed out that the same tools can be used for pandemics.  In a fascinating discussion, he pointed out that satellite photos of Wuhan, China from August of last year show increased vehicular ( (a measure that includes bicycles) occupancy in China hospitals.  Intelligence agencies have complemented this with social media content analysis, which shows a significant uptick in questions about symptoms–symptoms correlating strongly with those produced by COVID–at the same time.  The conclusion, of course, is that COVID was probably hitting Wuhan in August of last year, before the world–and probably even China–knew about it.  These remote sensing tools (which include monitor of cemetery and crematoria activity) can be useful in detecting pandemics early.

Natsios concluded by emphasizing the importance of early detection, noting that if the pandemic is caught in time, its contagion can be extraordinarily curtailed.

Dr. Blackburn then fielded questions from the audience, which included:

• • Is there a single agency in charge of biosecurity?
    • No, although one is desperately needed.  Both Parker and Natsios agreed that, unless a directive was sent straight from the White House, most agencies wouldn’t implement with the efficiency needed, often because of interdepartmental conflicts.  The discussion of interdepartmental conflicts–conflicts which apparently included Parker and Natsios while they were in different departments, let to some humorous recollections.
• • How do we balance Technology and Privacy?
    • Although this wasn’t answered directly, the information provided was interesting.  Natsios noted that Germany had very good privacy laws, but shifted topics somewhat by noting that the US had a “frontier mentality,” which affected its balancing of individual vs. collective rights.  Because of this “frontier mentality,” many argue that the government has no right to ask them to wear a mask–a belief contradicted by court rulings dating back to at least 1820.
  • How do we deal with unknown pandemics?
    • All agreed that all pandemics are unknown–even if they come from known diseases, they are often a mutated or novel version.  The panel agreed on increased spending, and, perhaps befitting employees of Texas A&M, home of one of the best Veterinary Schools in the US–suggested the importance of studying zoonotic diseases.  Natsios noted that 70 percent of the new diseases in the past 40 years have come from animals, with HIV being, obviously, the most notable example.

This fascinating and timely discussion can be viewed here in its entirety and the white paper can be found here.  Thanks again to the Bush School for its wonderful programming!